White cardboard (such as Ivory board,art board),food grade board) is made from virgin wood pulp, while white board paper (recycled white board paper,such as duplex board with grey back） is made from waste paper. White cardboard is smoother and more expensive than white board paper, and is more often used for high-end packaging, but to a certain extent they are interchangeable.
China’s waste paper recycling rate reached 51.3% in 2021, the highest value since 2012, and there is still more room for optimization of the domestic waste paper recycling system. In recent years, China’s waste paper utilization rate has continued to decline, and in 2021 China’s waste paper utilization rate was 54.1%, a decline of 18.9% from 73% in 2012.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2022, the national production of machine paper and paperboard 124.943 million tons, down 0.9% year-on-year. The operating income of enterprises in the paper and paper products industry above the size of 137.652 billion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year.
According to customs statistics, the cumulative imports of paper and paper products from January to October 2022 amounted to 7.338 million tons, down 19.74% year-on-year; the cumulative exports of paper and paper products from January to October 2022 amounted to 9.3962 million tons, up 53% year-on-year.
The current domestic wood pulp market is dependent on imports, and the amount of imports means the amount of supply in the current period. According to customs statistics, from January to November 2022, China’s cumulative imports of pulp amounted to 26.801 million tons, down 3.5% year-on-year; from January to October 2022, China’s cumulative exports of pulp amounted to 219,100 tons, an increase of 100.8% year-on-year.
2022 China’s white cardboard production capacity of 14.95 million tons, an increase of 8.9%; 2022 China’s white cardboard production of 11.24 million tons, an increase of 20.0%; 2022 China’s Ivory board imports of 330,000 tons, a decline of 28.3%; 2022 China’s white cardboard exports of 2.3 million tons, an increase of 57.5%; 2022 China’s white cardboard consumption of 8.95 million tons, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year
2022 domestic ivory board production capacity to maintain growth trends, but mainly to technical conversion, no new production projects this year. 2022 white cardboard industry total production capacity of 14.95 million tons, capacity growth rate of 8.9%, capacity growth rate to maintain high growth trend, the actual realization of the situation, most of the paper out of the situation is not ideal, part of the conversion and then resume production of NINGBO FOLD ivory board.
Business paper industry analysts believe that, overall, the paper industry has been in a downward trend throughout the year due to the general market environment. As the 2023 Spring Festival holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream paper industry has entered a phase of preparation for shutting down production in advance of the holiday. The overall performance of waste paper and corrugated paper is weak. There are no favorable factors for the time being before the Spring Festival. As the paper mills’ start-up rates increase after the year, downstream terminal demand may improve, thus also increasing demand for upstream waste paper and corrugated paper, and it is expected that the prices of waste paper and corrugated paper may have upward realizations after the year.
In 2022, wood pulp imports have been decreasing due to the weakening of overseas and North American real estate markets, resulting in the market maintaining a tight supply. At present, domestic wood pulp spot prices are mostly driven by the impact of pulp futures prices. With news of pulp mills going into production overseas one after another, there are expectations of increased supply in the future. And the Spring Festival holiday approaching market willingness to receive goods is not strong, the demand side narrow contraction, broad-leaved wood pulp price trend is weak, short-term needle broad-leaved wood pulp spread may continue to expand, is expected after the year wood pulp spot prices may be short-term maintenance of a wide range of finishing.
As for white cardboard and white board paper, the current market supply is relatively stable, in the upstream cost support and downstream consumer applications, the price is temporarily stable operation. With the Chinese New Year holiday approaching paper mills holiday logistics stop, white cardboard and white board paper market supply and demand are at a standstill. And the downstream market after the year, the start of the rise in demand may increase, is expected after the year white cardboard and white paper prices may be strong finishing run.
Post time: Mar-04-2023